Autocracy : The Suicide Ride

History teaches us autocracies are suicide machines - a car crash waiting to happen. The only question is which falls first - the country or its leadership.

And yet autocrats appear to be blind to the inevitable regime change or an impoverished, corrupt nation.

It stems from the leadership’s belief they can successfully steer a nation with a team they know to be liars at best, crooks at worst. As each day passes, the dirt accumulates, lie upon lie. And as the consequences of betrayal compound, the inner circle has little choice but to dial up the façade of mutual admiration and trust.

Cabinet discussions become sanitised, to avoid any disagreement being mistaken for a sign of betrayal. Instead of fact-based, honest deliberations, any bad news and dissenting views are filtered for the safe side of loyalty - never risking a dissent too far.

And that’s the ultimate Achilles heel of autocracies: fear of dissent.

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UPDATE 06.06.25: The Musk dissent

Musk will accelerate failure of the leadership when he starts revealing what Trumps’ cabinet say behind his back.

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JFK learnt early on that without dissent a government makes bad decisions. After just 74 days in office he had heard no opposition to “Operation Zapata” and approved the plan to overthrow Castro. Conceived by the CIA under Eisenhower’s’ administration, “Zapata” became known as the “Bay of Pigs” invasion. An unmatched military fiasco, it very publicly humiliated Kennedy and America.

Fearing another US invasion, Castro with an emboldened Russia shipped nuclear missiles into Cuba. This time JFK insisted on dissent in the cabinet he convened for the Cuban missile crisis. By deliberately placing advisors with opposing views around the table he successfully avoided a nuclear confrontation. Kennedy never forgot the value of dissent and aides reported he often said "I want every man to speak his mind. I’m not interested in loyalty.".

Ironically, the more fearless, ruthless and strong an autocrat appears to be, the less they can tolerate dissent and the more they insist upon blind loyalty.

Seventeen months after Hitler came to power in 1933 he’d had enough of opponents within the party and had them killed in the “Night of the Long Knives”. Having taken care of “internal business”, the 3^rd Reich went out of business 10 years and 9 months later.

Saddam Hussein was a cut above Hitler in ruthlessness, cunning and intolerance. Six days after his election in 1979 he owned the entire Ba’ath party. The purge was so psychologically effective it eliminated inner circle dissent for the rest of his reign. Remaining in power for another 24 years is further testament to his cunning and cruelty. Never-the-less, it didn’t end well.

The dissent-free reign of Hussein may yet be beaten by Putin. The arrest of oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky in October 2003 is generally seen as the day he consolidated power. For the next 19 years unexplained suicides, falls from windows, poisonings and bare-faced assassinations silenced dissent. Reality hit home in 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine.

Putin was so sure of a speedy victory that captured Russian troops were found with their full dress uniforms packed, anticipating surrender ceremonies days after they invaded.

We’ll never know if the inner circle - or those reporting to them - were too scared to contradict the idea. But they knew former Deputy Prime-Minister Boris Nemtsov was assassinated. He had criticised the invasion of Crimea and was working on a report exposing Russian military involvement in Ukraine.

And we know that ;

1. Putin chose to go ahead.

2. This led to; economic sanctions for the leadership, oligarchs and country, 650,000 citizens leaving Russia, 900,000 killed or wounded in action, Finland and Sweden joining NATO, the end of EU revenue and dependence on Russian energy, strained relations with China… the list goes on… as does the war.

But Yevgeny Prigozhin’s military mutiny of June 2024 shattered the charade of loyalty amongst the inner circle. Putin knows Prigozhin wouldn’t betray him without making some calls to gauge support beforehand.

Prigozhin serves Putin in happier days

And every member of the inner circle, even if they didn’t personally receive a call from Prigozhin now knows that a battle-tested ally chose to betray them and Putin. More than that, Prigozhin thought the terminal consequence of failure was worth the risk. Putin and his leadership have no choice now. It’s pedal to the metal, suicide or bust... the only question is whether country or leadership fall first… and who’ll pick up the pieces?

Which brings us to team Trump.

I won’t use the word autocrat (just yet) for Trump because the car crash isn’t quite inevitable. However, the road is suicidal. The loyalty parade at cabinet meetings is already playing like a sycophants love-in from a Kim Jong Un dream sequence in South Park.

But Trump’s cabinet facade can’t yet protect their members of Congress from the votes they need. Where Putin controls the news, a diet of “alternative facts” and election results, Trump’s public officials rely on votes from citizens facing reality.

The people have more power than the people in power.

April’s election for a Wisconsin Supreme Court judge was the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history with total spending approaching $100 million. The people of Wisconsin didn’t buy either Musk’s dollars or the spiel from his $44Bn social media platform. After three months of reality under a Trump administration in a record-breaking turnout the people voted against his candidate.

Voters are also making Trumps Congressmen and women nervous. Eight have stopped holding Town Hall meetings, arguing they’re too confrontational.

At the last Town Hall of Trumps most loyal Congresswomen, the MAGA firebrand Marjorie Taylor Greene, six protestors were tasered and removed. Marjorie shrugged it off but is getting antsy over her decline in popularity under Trumps’ administration.

She’s also chair of the DOGE sub-committee and most famously tweeted that wildfires were started by space-lasers controlled by a conspiracy of Jews. Marjorie is getting antsy over her decline in popularity under Trumps’ administration. Most recently she came bottom in Georgia’s senate poll and started directing her ire towards the administration. Signing off a tweet with…

“When you are losing MTG, you are losing the base.” M. Taylor Greene, May 2025

The velvet ropes of loyalty are starting to wrap themselves around the necks of Trumps inner circle. Mike Walz has just departed as head of the NSA to become UN ambassador. Vice President (and Presidential hopeful) JD Vance says it’s a promotion. Mike Waltz and the inner circle trust JD as much as Trump does.

And then there’s international reality.

Every card Trump holds - money, military power, technology etc. - relies on the one he burned long ago… Trust.

Team Trump may have to rely on each other, but foreign powers can’t afford to. And even if they could, their voters are rejecting leaders tainted by Trump.

Trumps toxicity in office poisoned the election chances of his Canadian ally, the conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. On Jan 7th Poilievre’s party had 45% support in the polls with Liberals trailing at 16%. By the end of April, voters had turned. The Liberals won with 43.7% of the popular vote and Poilievre lost his own “safe” seat to a Liberal candidate. In Australia there’s a similar story– except it was the first time in Australia’s history that a party leader lost his own seat.

The sycophants parade around the cabinet table can hide dissent, but not reality. As the world de-couples from its reliance on America the domestic resistance grows. Judges are showing mettle (but not yet teeth). Harvard has stood its ground, and the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene are feeling the pressure of their polls…

Ultimately the people have more power than the people in power.

History doesn’t always repeat, but when dissent is suppressed, it tends to be repetitive - and the sound is almost always a siren.

More thinking…